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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd