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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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