A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
